NBA TV recently had its prediction show for the Thunder...and Brent Barry and Vinny Del Negro both took the under for a line set at 57.5 wins. While they had their own reasons for doing such a (foolish) thing, I thought it might be a good time to discuss what a reasonable prediction for the Thunder might be from someone who is a little less objective but a little more open minded about their chances.
Keep in mind that with Kevin playing only 27 games and Serge Ibaka missing the last 12, this team STILL made it to 45 wins, and only missed the playoff due to a tiebreaker with the Pelicans, who finished with the exact same record. So I would expect that a healthy KD would be able to contribute something in the neighborhood of his approximately 23 WARP (according to Basketball Reference) from his MVP season. Let's say its approximately 16 extra wins. My math is a bit rusty, but that should add up to about 61 wins. Even adjusting for the newness of Billy Donovan's system, and the integration of players like Kanter and Dion Waiters, this is a team that features 3 of the top 25 players in the league. Roll out the ball and they are probably going to rack up about 40 wins with ME as the head coach.
Now, consider this - this "new" squad just beat a game but young Minnesota squad by 21, racking up 34 total assists in the process (besting their top total from all of last year by 3) and dismantled the Turkish Fenerbahce team by 30 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would seem. This was the classic revenge game for Turk center Enes Kanter, and his new Thunder teammates surely came through with flying colors. Most notably Russell Westbrook, who abused the opposing Fenerbahce PG down low for 3 straight post up buckets. So it would appear that while they are still working out the kinks in the process, they are still a really, really good NBA team. Yeah, its Minnesota and some random Turkish squad, but with KD and Russ playing limited minutes, and the new guys getting a lot of burn while Billy tinkers with lineups, these could have gone the other way.
So I think I've already made a case for a "north of 45 wins" argument, but lets add more fuel to the fire. You've also got Dion Waiters in a contract year, and if you measure how he'll do by his public comments and play from the first two games, this is gonna be a very good thing. In the most recent game against Fenerbahce, he scored 19 points on 9 shots, and was a +19 in 19 minutes. That's a lot of #19s. In 23 minutes against the Timberpups, he put up a 10/6/4 line, and though he didn't shoot as well, he was still a +3 in his time on the floor.
Kanter has seen similar production numbers coming off of signing his huge free agent contract. He's a legit double double threat when healthy, and he'll have help in the form of Serge, Nick Collison, and Steven Adams on the defensive end. There has been a lot made of Kanter's atrocious defense (and somewhat rightfully so) but these same people tend to overlook the kind of impact he can create on the offensive end. And a lot of the brouhaha made over Kanter's D was in a small sample size, with a team having many of its key players injured or otherwise out of commission. I think that its fair to say the final book on how Kanter will impact the Thunder defensively has yet to be written.
If it was Vegas making these odds, setting the line at 57.5 would mean that they think there is action to be had on both sides of that number. Taking all of the above items into account, I feel like I've made a pretty compelling case for why the smart money would take the over on the Thunder this year. #ThunderNationRISE
So I think I've already made a case for a "north of 45 wins" argument, but lets add more fuel to the fire. You've also got Dion Waiters in a contract year, and if you measure how he'll do by his public comments and play from the first two games, this is gonna be a very good thing. In the most recent game against Fenerbahce, he scored 19 points on 9 shots, and was a +19 in 19 minutes. That's a lot of #19s. In 23 minutes against the Timberpups, he put up a 10/6/4 line, and though he didn't shoot as well, he was still a +3 in his time on the floor.
Kanter has seen similar production numbers coming off of signing his huge free agent contract. He's a legit double double threat when healthy, and he'll have help in the form of Serge, Nick Collison, and Steven Adams on the defensive end. There has been a lot made of Kanter's atrocious defense (and somewhat rightfully so) but these same people tend to overlook the kind of impact he can create on the offensive end. And a lot of the brouhaha made over Kanter's D was in a small sample size, with a team having many of its key players injured or otherwise out of commission. I think that its fair to say the final book on how Kanter will impact the Thunder defensively has yet to be written.
If it was Vegas making these odds, setting the line at 57.5 would mean that they think there is action to be had on both sides of that number. Taking all of the above items into account, I feel like I've made a pretty compelling case for why the smart money would take the over on the Thunder this year. #ThunderNationRISE
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