The year ahead (part 2)

So, without further ado, here are my thoughts for part 2 of the year ahead for the OKC Thunder...

*If KD does leave, what happens next? - Clearly, this is the doomsday scenario for the Thunder; a small market team that can't afford to be without (one of) its drafted superstars.


There are a couple things in play here - first and foremost, OKC is clearly doing, and will continue to do, everything in its power to keep KD in town.  The roster changes, the coaching change, these are things that were done to improve the team and in improving the team, give them a better chance to win a championship.  And potentially in doing so, convince KD that this is his best landing spot for the present and the future.  Let's not mess around:  everything hinges on KD sticking in Oklahoma.  Everything.  Because if he stays, the domino effect is very real:  its much more likely that Russell Westbrook (whose is eligible for a new contract in the 2016-2017 season, as well as Serge Ibaka) stays.  Those 3 stay together, and they win.  A lot  And if they can win with this core, then there really isn't any reason that they couldn't keep winning with this core.  It worked for Miami in the East, and should in theory work for the Thunder in the West.  Yes, the West is tougher, and yes, KD is no LeBron.  But trying to be objective, I can't really think of a place that would be a better fit that would be able to put the pieces in place around KD to help him win more, or even have a better chance to win more.  

Washington is home, but are the Wiz really that much better than the Thunder?  The East is not at tough as the West, but its not the creampuff Leastern Conference it used to be.  I don't need to speak on Cleveland, but look at teams like Chicago and Miami, who can and should be better than last year.  There's also the ATL, who likely won't win 60 games again, but are a clear threat in the East.  That's 4 teams that are ALREADY better than the Wizards.  And everyone is going to have a lot more money as the salary cap goes up, but places like Atlanta, Cleveland (sans LeBron) and yes Washington D.C. aren't exactly hotbed free agent destinations. Would having KD make the Wiz better?  For sure...but is John Wall better than Russ Westbrook?  Is Marcin Gortat better than Serge Ibaka?  Is Nene better than Enes Kanter?  All of these questions are a solid "no."  So if the money is the same, why leave a good situation to go to an inferior team?

This shirt better be on sale for cheap next year

Ultimately though, this is going to be KD's decision.  If he fees like the team hasn't done enough to help him win, then he'll have the chance to go to another team in free agency because he controls his own destiny.  As a tool for basketball players who are professional athletes, having this opportunity is a very good thing.  As a fan of the Thunder, it really really sucks.  If he does leave, its a blow to the organization they would likely take years to recover from, if ever.  They would likely go all in on keeping Russ, and try to use their massive cap space to lure someone to complement Russ's game.  Russ has already shown he can carry a team, but not necessarily carry them to wins.  If he has to become the do-it-all triple double threat he was last season, he can - but I don't know if this team as presently constructed would be the best supporting cast for him to do so.  This is KD's team and will continue to be so until he shows otherwise.  

*Does OKC have the talent to win it all and be the NBA Champs? - My opinion here is yes.  There are a lot of unknowns, yes.  Biggest among them is how Billy Donovan will be in his 1st year as head coach.  Talked about this a little bit in Part 1 but assuming that he can roll a ball out with a healthy KD, Russ, and Serge and win about 50 games, things seem pretty solid here.  Can they play different styles of basketball in the new small ball era of the NBA?  Yes, and have demonstrated in the past that some of their best lineups are small ball lineups with KD at the power forward spot.  A lineup of Serge, KD, Morrow, Waiters, and Russ would be incredibly hard to defend.  Shooting, slashing, and the ability to run multiple pick and roll options would turn them into a matchup nightmare. On offense of course, because defensively they might have an issue with Morrow and/or Waiters, but let's see what defensive schemes Billy D has cooked up to help out with that.

Enes Kanter and Steven Adams

And they can go with big lineups at times as well, with guys like Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, Nick Collison, and Mitch McGary.  Kanter is a force down low in the post, and has multiple offensive moves.  Adams is great in the PNR and is mobile and can finish.  McGary is a great rebounder with good handles and is an above average passer at his position.  Nicky C is solid defensively and knows how to position himself for both offensive and defensive rebounds.  And all this is without even a mention of Serge yet, who is probably a top 25 player in the league.

So they can play small, they can play big, that have good low post guys, they have great wing guys, and a 2 of the top 10 players in all of basketball on their side.  Can they win it all?  I think the answer is clearly "yes, they can" if they have health and a few breaks that haven't gone their way the last couple of years.  The last time the big 3 were healthy they went to the NBA Finals, and they've had some bad luck since.  I'd say they are about due for some good luck.  Can they win?  Sure.  Will they win?  The answer to that question will not only tell us the present of the Thunder, but likely the future of them as well.

#ThunderNationRISE